Model read: Tyler Warren projects 37 rec yds (median), 11.1 under the 48.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+4.2 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-3.2 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | HOU | 55 | 10 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | KC | 21 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | BAL | 13 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | HOU | 26 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | JAX | 43 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | SF | 30 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | SEA | 19 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | JAX | 15 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | HOU | 22 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | KC | 45 | 7 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 48.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.