Model read: Tony Pollard projects 13 rec yds (median), 4.8 over the 8.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+3.2 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-1.2 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NYG | 22 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | PHI | 1 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NYJ | -1 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | JAX | 17 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | NO | 10 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | KC | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | SF | 8 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | CLE | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | JAX | 3 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | SEA | 21 | 5 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 8.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.