T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop — Week 4

TE · MIN vs MIA · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

1 of 10cleared 4.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)
4.5Week 4 line
3Model median
35%Model over
67ProprScore

Model read: T.J. Hockenson projects 3 catches (median), 1.5 under the 4.5 line — the model leans under. Research signal — not a bet.

T.J. Hockenson vs the 4.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppRecTgtResult
Wk 3TB24UNDER
Wk 2CHI34UNDER
Wk 1GB45UNDER
25 wk16NYG11UNDER
25 wk15DAL45UNDER
25 wk14WAS23UNDER
25 wk13SEA66OVER
25 wk12GB44UNDER
25 wk11CHI36UNDER
25 wk10BAL22UNDER

Graded against this week's 4.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

17.5%Share of team throws
4.4Targets / game
76%Routes run
6.1Avg depth of target
27.3Yards / game
76%Snap share

T.J. Hockenson's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.