Model read: Theo Johnson projects 18 rec yds (median), 9.8 over the 8.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+3.8 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-1.4 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | LA | 0 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | DAL | 9 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | MIN | 0 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | WAS | 72 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | NE | 29 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | DET | 77 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | GB | 36 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | CHI | 75 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | SF | 27 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | PHI | 20 | 4 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 8.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.