Model read: Ted Hurst III projects 14 rec yds (median), 8.6 under the 22.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by projected game total and pass rate (+0.3 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-0.4 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIN | 40 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | CLE | 27 | 7 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | CIN | 36 | 3 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 22.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.