Model read: Samaje Perine projects 12 rec yds (median), 2.8 over the 9.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+1.2 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-0.1 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | PIT | 5 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | HOU | 16 | 1 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | TB | 30 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | CLE | 10 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | ARI | 8 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | MIA | 16 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | BAL | 1 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | BUF | 7 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | BAL | 15 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | CHI | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 9.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.