Model read: Sam LaPorta projects 38 rec yds (median), 10.0 under the 48.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.0 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-9.3 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NYJ | 44 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | BUF | 52 | 7 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | NO | 48 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | WAS | 53 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | MIN | 97 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | TB | 15 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk6 | KC | 55 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk5 | CIN | 92 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk4 | CLE | 39 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk3 | BAL | 33 | 4 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 48.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.