Model read: Sam Darnold projects 222 pass yds (median), 11.7 under the 233.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by team pass volume (+48.7 yds) and pulled down by coverage he’s facing (-56.2 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk18 | SF | 198 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CAR | 147 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | LA | 270 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | IND | 271 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | ATL | 249 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | MIN | 128 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | TEN | 244 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | LA | 279 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | ARI | 178 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | WAS | 330 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 233.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.