Model read: Ryan Flournoy projects 23 rec yds (median), 10.7 under the 33.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+3.4 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-2.5 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | BAL | 22 | 8 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | WAS | 23 | 6 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NYG | 22 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | NYG | 68 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | LAC | 18 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | MIN | 40 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | DET | 115 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | KC | 34 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | PHI | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | LV | 2 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 33.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.