Model read: Patrick Mahomes projects 266 pass yds (median), 29.5 over the 236.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by team pass volume (+61.2 yds) and pulled down by game flow (-16.5 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk15 | LAC | 189 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | HOU | 160 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DAL | 261 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | IND | 352 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | DEN | 276 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | BUF | 250 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | WAS | 299 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | LV | 286 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk6 | DET | 257 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk5 | JAX | 318 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 236.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.