Pat Bryant Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

WR · DEN vs SF · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

8 of 10cleared 23.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)
23.5Week 4 line
17.4Model median
39%Model over
66ProprScore

Model read: Pat Bryant projects 17 rec yds (median), 6.1 under the 23.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+1.4 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-8.7 yds). Research signal — not a bet.

Pat Bryant vs the 23.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
Wk 3LA442OVER
Wk 2JAX01UNDER
Wk 1KC426OVER
25 wk18LAC315OVER
25 wk16JAX428OVER
25 wk14LV324OVER
25 wk13WAS427OVER
25 wk11KC826OVER
25 wk10LV432OVER
25 wk9HOU203UNDER

Graded against this week's 23.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

10.6%Share of team throws
3.4Targets / game
56%Routes run
6.9Avg depth of target
28.9Yards / game
56%Snap share

Pat Bryant's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.