Model read: Noah Gray projects 12 rec yds (median), 3.8 over the 8.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+2.3 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-1.3 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIA | 39 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | IND | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | DEN | 5 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | LV | 30 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | DEN | 2 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | TEN | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | HOU | 14 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | IND | 25 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | DEN | 9 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | BUF | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 8.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.