Model read: Noah Fant projects 20 rec yds (median), 2.0 over the 17.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his target share vs. last season (+2.5 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-4.9 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | LV | 33 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | BAL | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | DET | 33 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | CLE | 5 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | ARI | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | BUF | 15 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | BAL | 3 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | NE | 9 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | PIT | 36 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | CHI | 28 | 3 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 17.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.