Model read: Nico Collins projects 36 rec yds (median), 39.4 under the 75.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+4.2 yds) and pulled down by his target share vs. last season (-37.8 yds). ⚠ Listed Questionable: ~69% play-probability, so the workload is trimmed and the outcomes carry real mass at zero — treat with caution. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | BUF | 75 | 10 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | LAC | 57 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | LV | 59 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | ARI | 85 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | KC | 121 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | IND | 98 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | BUF | 55 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | TEN | 92 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | JAX | 136 | 15 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | DEN | 75 | 11 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 75.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.