Model read: Michael Wilson projects 4 catches (median), 1.5 under the 5.5 line — the model leans under. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Rec | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | SF | 11 | 17 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | SEA | 2 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | LAC | 5 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | LA | 5 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CIN | 5 | 10 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | ATL | 2 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | HOU | 5 | 11 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | LA | 11 | 16 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | TB | 3 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | JAX | 10 | 15 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 5.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.