Model read: Michael Pittman projects 31 rec yds (median), 3.8 under the 34.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+2.6 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-7.1 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | 16 | 5 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 58 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | HOU | 11 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | JAX | 16 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | SF | 32 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | SEA | 26 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | JAX | 79 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | HOU | 13 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | KC | 27 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | ATL | 19 | 2 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 34.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.