Model read: Marcus Mariota projects 260 pass yds (median), 47.8 over the 212.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by coverage he’s facing (+28.4 yds) and pulled down by team pass volume (-37.3 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk16 | PHI | 95 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | NYG | 211 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | MIN | 30 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DEN | 294 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | MIA | 213 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | DET | 213 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | KC | 213 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | DAL | 63 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk4 | ATL | 156 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk3 | LV | 207 | — | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 212.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.