Model read: Lamar Jackson projects 237 pass yds (median), 16.8 over the 220.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by team pass volume (+58.0 yds) and pulled down by game flow (-39.9 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk18 | PIT | 238 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | NE | 101 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | CIN | 150 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | PIT | 219 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | CIN | 246 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NYJ | 153 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CLE | 193 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | MIN | 176 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | MIA | 204 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk4 | KC | 147 | — | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 220.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.