Model read: Kyren Williams projects 14 rec yds (median), 0.3 under the 14.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+2.4 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-11.1 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | DEN | 70 | 7 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | NYG | 12 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | SF | 24 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | ARI | 21 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | ATL | 38 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | SEA | 15 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | DET | 10 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | ARI | 13 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | CAR | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | TB | 2 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 14.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.