Model read: Kendrick Bourne projects 32 rec yds (median), 10.8 over the 21.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+4.8 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-6.7 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | SF | 22 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | SEA | 11 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | LAC | 75 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | SEA | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CHI | 25 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | IND | 27 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | TEN | 17 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | CLE | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | LA | 19 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | NYG | 34 | 2 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 21.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.