Model read: Keenan Allen projects 42 rec yds (median), 6.3 over the 35.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+4.8 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-2.5 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | HOU | 63 | 9 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | KC | 5 | 5 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | BAL | 32 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | DEN | 36 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | HOU | 17 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | DAL | 44 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | KC | 36 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | PHI | 22 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | LV | 30 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | JAX | 53 | 6 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 35.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.