Model read: Keaton Mitchell projects 4 rec yds (median), 6.9 under the 10.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+2.5 yds) and pulled down by his target share vs. last season (-2.4 yds). ⚠ Listed Questionable: ~69% play-probability, so the workload is trimmed and the outcomes carry real mass at zero — treat with caution. Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | BUF | -5 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | LV | 15 | 1 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | ARI | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | PIT | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | GB | 7 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | NE | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | CIN | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | PIT | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | CIN | 12 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NYJ | 9 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 10.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.