Model read: Justin Herbert projects 273 pass yds (median), 73.5 over the 199.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by team pass volume (+44.4 yds) and pulled down by receiver efficiency (-26.7 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk17 | HOU | 236 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | DAL | 300 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | KC | 210 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | PHI | 139 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | LV | 151 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | JAX | 81 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | PIT | 220 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | TEN | 250 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | MIN | 227 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | IND | 420 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 199.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.