Model read: Johnny Mundt projects 9 rec yds (median), 1.7 over the 7.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+4.4 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-1.8 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CHI | 4 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | TEN | 8 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | TEN | 16 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | IND | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | ARI | 12 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | LAC | 25 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | HOU | 21 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | LV | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk7 | LA | 9 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk6 | SEA | 14 | 2 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 7.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.