Johnny Mundt Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

TE · PHI vs LA · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

7 of 10cleared 7.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)
7.5Week 4 line
9.2Model median
56%Model over
53ProprScore

Model read: Johnny Mundt projects 9 rec yds (median), 1.7 over the 7.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+4.4 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-1.8 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.

Johnny Mundt vs the 7.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
Wk 3CHI41UNDER
Wk 2TEN83OVER
25 wk18TEN161OVER
25 wk17IND01UNDER
25 wk12ARI122OVER
25 wk11LAC253OVER
25 wk10HOU212OVER
25 wk9LV00UNDER
25 wk7LA94OVER
25 wk6SEA142OVER

Graded against this week's 7.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

6.6%Share of team throws
1.8Targets / game
43%Routes run
2.9Avg depth of target
7.6Yards / game
43%Snap share

Johnny Mundt's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.