Model read: Jerry Jeudy projects 33 rec yds (median), 18.7 over the 14.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+11.0 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-1.9 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | TB | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | JAX | 26 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | CIN | 17 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | PIT | 54 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | BUF | 12 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | CHI | 22 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | TEN | 76 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | SF | 26 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | LV | 39 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | BAL | 21 | 7 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 14.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.