Model read: Jalen Nailor projects 32 rec yds (median), 12.4 over the 19.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+9.0 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-2.0 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NO | 16 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | LAC | 9 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | MIA | 27 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | GB | 49 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | DET | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | NYG | 0 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | DAL | 47 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | WAS | 30 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | SEA | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | GB | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 19.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.