Model read: Greg Dulcich projects 39 rec yds (median), 9.4 over the 29.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+14.5 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-5.6 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | KC | 55 | 7 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | SF | 17 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | LV | 18 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | NE | 31 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | TB | 58 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | CIN | 46 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | PIT | 46 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | NYJ | 41 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | NO | 24 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | WAS | 18 | 4 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 29.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.