How often has Geno Smith gone over 227.5 passing yards?

Geno Smith has cleared 227.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 10 games.

What is Geno Smith's passing yards line in Week 4?

Geno Smith's Week 4 passing yards line is 227.5 against CHI. The ProprStats model projects 200.3 (median).

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop — Week 4

QB · NYJ vs CHI · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

3 of 10cleared 227.5 passing yards in his last 10

227.5Week 4 line

200.3Model median

36%Model over

67ProprScore

Model read: Geno Smith projects 200 pass yds (median), 27.2 under the 227.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by receiver efficiency (+10.2 yds) and pulled down by team pass volume (-40.4 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.

Geno Smith vs the 227.5 line — last 10 games

Week	Opp	Yds	Tgt	Result
25 wk17	NYG	176	—	UNDER
25 wk16	HOU	201	—	UNDER
25 wk14	DEN	116	—	UNDER
25 wk13	LAC	165	—	UNDER
25 wk12	CLE	285	—	OVER
25 wk11	DAL	238	—	OVER
25 wk10	DEN	143	—	UNDER
25 wk9	JAX	284	—	OVER
25 wk7	KC	67	—	UNDER
25 wk6	TEN	174	—	UNDER

Graded against this week's 227.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

6.2Avg depth of target

More NFL prop research

TD ZoneScoring field map, red-zone target share, goal-line usage Props BoardEvery Week 4 prop ranked Geno Smith overviewAll props, usage and matchup

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.