Model read: Garrett Wilson projects 4 catches (median), 2.5 under the 6.5 line — the model leans under. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Rec | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | DET | 10 | 13 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | GB | 5 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | TEN | 6 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | CLE | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk6 | DEN | 3 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk5 | DAL | 6 | 10 | UNDER |
| 25 wk4 | MIA | 6 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk3 | TB | 10 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk2 | BUF | 4 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk1 | PIT | 7 | 9 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.