Model read: Emmett Johnson projects 13 rec yds (median), 4.2 over the 8.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-1.2 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIA | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | IND | 20 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | DEN | 44 | 2 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 8.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.