Model read: Emanuel Wilson projects 9 rec yds (median), 2.4 over the 6.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by less certain of his role after the move (+7.0 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-0.4 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | WAS | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | ARI | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NE | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | MIN | 4 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | BAL | 8 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | CHI | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | DEN | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | CHI | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DET | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | MIN | 18 | 2 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.