How often has Derrick Henry gone over 7.5 receiving yards?

Derrick Henry has cleared 7.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 10 games (spanning two seasons).

What is Derrick Henry's receiving yards line in Week 4?

Derrick Henry's Week 4 receiving yards line is 7.5 against TEN. The ProprStats model projects 9.1 (median).

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

RB · BAL vs TEN · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

5 of 10cleared 7.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)

7.5Week 4 line

9.1Model median

56%Model over

55ProprScore

Model read: Derrick Henry projects 9 rec yds (median), 1.6 over the 7.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+2.1 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-1.3 yds). Research signal — not a bet.

Derrick Henry vs the 7.5 line — last 10 games

Week	Opp	Yds	Tgt	Result
Wk 3	DAL	0	1	UNDER
Wk 2	NO	19	3	OVER
Wk 1	IND	19	1	OVER
25 wk18	PIT	0	1	UNDER
25 wk17	GB	0	0	UNDER
25 wk16	NE	0	0	UNDER
25 wk15	CIN	0	0	UNDER
25 wk14	PIT	8	2	OVER
25 wk13	CIN	44	1	OVER
25 wk12	NYJ	24	2	OVER

Graded against this week's 7.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

6.0%Share of team throws

1.5Targets / game

56%Routes run

-1.6Avg depth of target

10.7Yards / game

56%Snap share

Derrick Henry's other Week 4 props

Anytime TouchdownLine 0.5

More NFL prop research

TD ZoneScoring field map, red-zone target share, goal-line usage Props BoardEvery Week 4 prop ranked Derrick Henry overviewAll props, usage and matchup

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.