Model read: Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 50 rec yds (median), 15.7 over the 34.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+15.3 yds) and pulled down by his target share vs. last season (-7.3 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ARI | 80 | 0 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | MIA | 31 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | LA | 48 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | PHI | 20 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | DAL | 68 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | PHI | 35 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | NYG | 43 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | MIN | 27 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DEN | 64 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | MIA | 74 | 8 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 34.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.