Model read: Darren Waller projects 23 rec yds (median), 5.5 under the 28.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+4.0 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-4.8 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CLE | 51 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | ATL | 33 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | CHI | 28 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | TB | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | CIN | 40 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | PIT | 66 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | NYJ | 13 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | NO | 47 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | CLE | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk6 | LAC | 12 | 3 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 28.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.