Model read: Darnell Mooney projects 29 rec yds (median), 8.7 over the 20.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+2.4 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-1.5 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | TEN | 20 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | LA | 48 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | DAL | 27 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | NO | 20 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | LA | 35 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | ARI | 24 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | TB | 35 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | SEA | 6 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | NYJ | 25 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NO | 74 | 3 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 20.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.