Daniel Jones Passing Yards Prop — Week 4

QB · IND vs WAS · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

5 of 10cleared 225.5 passing yards in his last 10
225.5Week 4 line
256.2Model median
66%Model over
73ProprScore

Model read: Daniel Jones projects 256 pass yds (median), 30.7 over the 225.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by coverage he’s facing (+23.9 yds) and pulled down by game flow (-5.1 yds). Research signal — not a bet.

Daniel Jones vs the 225.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
25 wk14JAX60—UNDER
25 wk13HOU201—UNDER
25 wk12KC181—UNDER
25 wk10ATL255—OVER
25 wk9PIT342—OVER
25 wk8TEN272—OVER
25 wk7LAC288—OVER
25 wk6ARI212—UNDER
25 wk5LV212—UNDER
25 wk4LA262—OVER

Graded against this week's 225.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

8Avg depth of target

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.