Model read: Daniel Jones projects 256 pass yds (median), 30.7 over the 225.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by coverage he’s facing (+23.9 yds) and pulled down by game flow (-5.1 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk14 | JAX | 60 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | HOU | 201 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | KC | 181 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | ATL | 255 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | PIT | 342 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | TEN | 272 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | LAC | 288 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk6 | ARI | 212 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk5 | LV | 212 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk4 | LA | 262 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 225.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.