Model read: D'Andre Swift projects 4 rec yds (median), 10.0 under the 14.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+2.1 yds) and pulled down by his target share vs. last season (-8.2 yds). ⚠ Listed Questionable: ~69% play-probability, so the workload is trimmed and the outcomes carry real mass at zero — treat with caution. Soft spot: an unresolved injury status. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | PHI | 4 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | MIN | 54 | 5 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | CAR | 10 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | DET | 8 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | SF | 25 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | GB | 12 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | CLE | -2 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | GB | 19 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | PHI | 13 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | PIT | 14 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 14.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.