Model read: Dalton Kincaid projects 31 rec yds (median), 20.1 under the 51.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+3.8 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-15.0 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | LAC | 38 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | DET | 95 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | HOU | 130 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | NYJ | 48 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | CLE | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | NE | 34 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | CIN | 41 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | MIA | 37 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | KC | 101 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | CAR | 23 | 3 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 51.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.