Model read: Cole Kmet projects 10 rec yds (median), 0.2 over the 9.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+0.6 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-1.4 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | PHI | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | MIN | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | CAR | 35 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | DET | 16 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | SF | 16 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | GB | 14 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | CLE | 28 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | GB | 42 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | PHI | 36 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | PIT | 3 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 9.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.