Model read: Christian Watson projects 78 rec yds (median), 12.6 over the 65.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+22.1 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-14.1 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ATL | 96 | 10 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | NYJ | 41 | 11 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | MIN | 147 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | BAL | 113 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | CHI | 17 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | DEN | 29 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | CHI | 89 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | DET | 80 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | MIN | 49 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | NYG | 46 | 5 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 65.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.