Model read: Christian McCaffrey projects 32 rec yds (median), 8.5 under the 40.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+1.1 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-6.4 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ARI | 41 | 5 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | MIA | 43 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | LA | 20 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | SEA | 34 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CHI | 41 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | IND | 29 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | TEN | 14 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | CLE | 21 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CAR | 53 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | ARI | 40 | 6 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 40.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.