Model read: Chris Bell projects 5 rec yds (median), 26.6 under the 31.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by projected game total and pass rate (+1.9 yds) and pulled down by target volume vs role baseline (-9.6 yds). ⚠ Listed Questionable: ~69% play-probability, so the workload is trimmed and the outcomes carry real mass at zero — treat with caution. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | KC | 67 | 7 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | SF | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | LV | 25 | 2 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 31.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.