Model read: Chig Okonkwo projects 9 rec yds (median), 14.2 under the 23.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+5.1 yds) and pulled down by his target share vs. last season (-9.2 yds). ⚠ Listed Questionable: ~69% play-probability, so the workload is trimmed and the outcomes carry real mass at zero — treat with caution. Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | PHI | 16 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | JAX | 2 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | NO | 55 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | KC | 44 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | SF | 33 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | CLE | 20 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | JAX | 29 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | SEA | 40 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | HOU | 56 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | LAC | 10 | 2 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 23.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.