Model read: Cam Ward projects 251 pass yds (median), 65.8 over the 185.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by game flow (+19.4 yds) and pulled down by team pass volume (-10.3 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk18 | JAX | 52 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | NO | 251 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | KC | 228 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | SF | 170 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | CLE | 117 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | JAX | 141 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | SEA | 256 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | HOU | 194 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | LAC | 145 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk8 | IND | 259 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 185.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.