Model read: Brock Wright projects 10 rec yds (median), 4.0 over the 5.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+3.1 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-0.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NYJ | 7 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | BUF | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NO | 5 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | NYG | 29 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | PHI | 8 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | WAS | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | MIN | 11 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | TB | 23 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk5 | CIN | 9 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk4 | CLE | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 5.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.