Model read: Brock Purdy projects 228 pass yds (median), 8.6 under the 236.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by coverage he’s facing (+11.1 yds) and pulled down by team pass volume (-47.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ARI | 297 | — | OVER |
| Wk 2 | MIA | 287 | — | OVER |
| Wk 1 | LA | 205 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | SEA | 127 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CHI | 303 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | IND | 295 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | TEN | 295 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | CLE | 168 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CAR | 193 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | ARI | 200 | — | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 236.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.