Model read: Brevyn Spann-Ford projects 3 rec yds (median), 2.6 over the 0.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by projected game total and pass rate (+1.1 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-0.7 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | BAL | 19 | 1 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | WAS | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NYG | 14 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | NYG | 30 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | WAS | 31 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | LAC | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | MIN | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | DET | 7 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | KC | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | PHI | 4 | 1 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 0.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.