Model read: Bo Nix projects 267 pass yds (median), 42.9 over the 224.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by coverage he’s facing (+23.8 yds) and pulled down by team pass volume (-42.1 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk18 | LAC | 141 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | KC | 182 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | JAX | 352 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | GB | 302 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | LV | 212 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | WAS | 321 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | KC | 295 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | LV | 150 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | HOU | 173 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk8 | DAL | 247 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 224.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.