Model read: Alvin Kamara projects 2 catches (median), 1.5 under the 3.5 line — the model leans under. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Rec | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | LV | 1 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | BAL | 5 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | ATL | 2 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | CAR | 3 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | LA | 1 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk8 | TB | 2 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk7 | CHI | 3 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk6 | NE | 5 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk5 | NYG | 4 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk4 | BUF | 4 | 5 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 3.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.