Model read: Aaron Rodgers projects 236 pass yds (median), 19.8 over the 216.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by team pass volume (+40.1 yds) and pulled down by coverage he’s facing (-22.7 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 wk18 | BAL | 294 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | CLE | 168 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | DET | 266 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | MIA | 224 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | BAL | 284 | — | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | BUF | 117 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CIN | 116 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | LAC | 161 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | IND | 203 | — | UNDER |
| 25 wk8 | GB | 219 | — | OVER |
Graded against this week's 216.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.